EU Joint Research Centre · Climate & nature

Europe Faces Worsening Drought and Record Heat, Fueling Wildfires and Low River Levels

Europe is experiencing a severe drought exacerbated by prolonged low rainfall and recurrent heatwaves, leading to record low river levels and increased wildfire activity. The Copernicus Earth observation programme reports that major rivers like the Loire, Po, Rhine, and Danube have reached historic lows in August.

The drought, which began building in early spring due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures, has intensified in July and August. This has fueled devastating wildfires in France and Spain, with forecasts indicating continued warm weather into September and potential warmer conditions from El Niño. Water resources, crops, energy systems, river transport, tourism, and ecosystems are under significant strain.

Wildfire activity has surged across the continent, with the burnt area in the EU by August 5th exceeding that of the same period in the previous year. The Copernicus European Forest Fires Information System (EFFIS) noted that last year was the worst on record for burnt area in the EU. Current data from the Copernicus European Drought Observatory (EDO) shows warning and alert-level drought conditions across most of Europe, with hotspots in France, Germany, Hungary, Romania, and the UK. Approximately 50% of the EU and UK are experiencing drought, with 9% at alert level.

Scarce precipitation is the primary driver of the drought, with significant rainfall deficits observed in central Europe, the Alps, Italy, the UK, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkans, and eastern Europe. Soil moisture is below normal in much of central and eastern Europe, and severe low-flow conditions affect catchments in central-eastern Europe, Norway, Finland, the Alps, northern Italy, and major rivers in Germany and France. Vegetation conditions are deteriorating in parts of France, central Europe, Hungary, and western Romania, impacting crop development. While overall EU yield forecasts remain slightly above the five-year average, they are below last year's levels, with reductions expected for winter crops, grain maize, and sunflowers.

The combined effects of drought and heatwaves are evident in rising temperatures and excess mortality. High temperatures and low river levels have impacted power generation, including reduced nuclear output in France. Critically low river levels on the Danube and Rhine have disrupted navigation, water supply, agricultural activities, and hydropower and nuclear energy generation. These issues highlight the interconnected impact of drought on water management, agriculture, transport, energy, and public health.

Wildfire activity has increased significantly due to the hot and dry conditions. By August 5th, the total burnt area in the EU had reached 505,683 hectares, surpassing the previous year's figures for the same period and exceeding the long-term average. Large fires have been concentrated in southwestern Europe, particularly Spain and France, but wildfire risk is expanding to other parts of the continent. The EU has implemented measures to strengthen wildfire risk management, including a dedicated rescEU fleet and teams on standby, along with ground firefighting teams and advisory services. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre is actively involved, and Copernicus's Emergency Management Service provides crucial mapping and geospatial information to support response operations.

Seasonal forecasts indicate continued dry conditions across much of Europe from July to September, particularly in central-western Europe and southern Scandinavia, though wetter conditions are expected in Mediterranean areas. The outlook for August suggests a continued risk of heatwaves across Europe, and river-flow forecasts predict low to extremely low discharge levels in many catchments in France, the Alpine region, and eastern Europe.

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