Anthropocene Magazine · Climate & nature

Replacing gasoline cars with EVs almost always lowers carbon emissions, study finds

A new analysis suggests that replacing a gasoline car with an electric vehicle (EV) will almost always result in lower overall carbon emissions, even if the gasoline car is brand new. This finding addresses a key uncertainty regarding the environmental benefits of switching to EVs.

While EVs produce fewer emissions during operation than gasoline cars, their manufacturing process generates more. This has led to questions about the optimal time to switch. The study, by researchers J. Elliott Campbell and Roland Geyer, calculated life-cycle carbon emissions for keeping a gasoline car for its typical 16-year lifespan versus replacing it with an EV. Their analysis considered various vehicle types, replacement timelines, electricity sources, and driving habits.

The findings indicate that replacing a gasoline car with an EV makes climate sense across a wide range of scenarios, even when the gasoline car is new. The environmental advantage of EVs is now considered clear. The researchers found that scrapping a gasoline car in its first year could lead to an average 58% reduction in emissions over 16 years. It takes approximately three years of driving an EV to offset the higher emissions from its manufacturing.

The study also noted that scrapping a hybrid vehicle can yield significant climate benefits. In 92% of the scenarios examined, replacing a gasoline or hybrid car with a battery EV before the end of its lifespan reduced overall carbon emissions. Exceptions included scenarios with inefficient EVs powered by dirty grids, plug-in hybrids, and gasoline cars driven very little annually.

The energy mix of local electricity grids can influence the break-even point, but for most of the United States, replacing even efficient gasoline cars early is beneficial. The climate advantages of EVs are expected to grow as electric grids become cleaner and battery recycling technology improves, reducing manufacturing emissions. The researchers also highlighted that while EV batteries can be recycled, the petroleum used in gasoline cars is permanently consumed, suggesting a material advantage for EVs.

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