Carbon Brief · Climate & nature

UK Aviation Emissions May Exceed 2050 Targets by 50%

New government forecasts indicate UK aviation emissions in 2050 could be nearly 50% higher than projected, potentially jeopardizing net-zero goals.

Updated projections show that even with ambitious tech, aviation emissions will only be cut by a quarter over two decades, falling short of the "jet-zero" strategy's 2050 goals.

The "technology development" pathway forecasts 28.1 MtCO2e in 2050, up from the "jet-zero" goal of 19.3 MtCO2e. This is due to lower expectations for SAFs, efficiency, and battery planes.

SAFs are now expected to be 30% of fuel by 2050, down from 50%, with reduced lifecycle carbon savings and supply concerns.

Fuel-efficiency improvements are revised to 1.3% annually, down from 2%. Battery planes will be limited, with only smaller zero-emission aircraft by 2035.

Higher emissions coincide with a predicted 50% rise in passenger numbers by 2050, including Heathrow expansion. This may require unproven carbon removal tech or extensive forestation.

Experts see these as more realistic forecasts, suggesting decarbonization efforts or demand limits are needed. Current trends could double the "jet-zero" target.

The revised figures question airport expansions, like Heathrow's third runway, which relied on technological promises. Such expansions may now exceed carbon budgets.

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