Science News · Science

Record-Breaking El Niño Intensity Recorded

This year's El Niño has reached an unprecedented intensity, surpassing all previously recorded events in terms of sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

On September 21, the daily sea surface temperature reached 3.08 degrees Celsius above average, exceeding the previous record of 3.02 degrees Celsius from November 2015. Scientists anticipate it may grow even stronger.

The oceanic heat released could contribute to a global land temperature increase of approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius, potentially leading to over 450,000 heat-related deaths by February 2027.

While not yet officially declared the strongest by NOAA's standard measurement, forecasts suggest this record is likely to be broken soon. A new measurement method is also in use.

The extent to which climate change fuels this El Niño's strength is unclear. However, global warming provides more energy in oceans, which El Niño events release into the atmosphere.

Predictable impacts include suppressed Atlantic hurricane seasons, enhanced Pacific hurricane seasons, and droughts in Central America and the Amazon. Further from the equator, impacts may include increased rain in the southern U.S.

Global ocean warming has made some historical mid-latitude impacts less predictable. For instance, expected wet weather in California did not fully materialize, possibly due to other warming ocean patterns.

El Niños typically last about a year, with this one likely weakening by spring. Strong El Niños increase the likelihood of a subsequent La Niña phase.

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