MIT News breed · Science

Study Predicts Stark Resource Access Disparities by 2050

A new study co-authored by MIT researchers projects significant differences in access to food, water, and energy by 2050, heavily influenced by region and income.

By 2050, lower-income individuals could spend up to 50% of their income on food, versus about 5% for higher-income groups in the same regions, indicating potential insecurity.

The study modeled factors like economics, agriculture, trade, climate, and land use to project future resource access, highlighting income and regional conditions as key drivers.

This research moves beyond broad scenarios to examine specific outcomes for different income groups, using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to simulate 3,735 scenarios.

Food security may be most acute in sub-Saharan Africa, while energy security could challenge low-income residents in parts of Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.

In southern Africa, the poorest 10% might spend nearly 50% of income on food, compared to 5.5% for the wealthiest 10%.

Energy access also shows disparities; in some Middle Eastern regions, the lowest income bracket could face an 18.9% energy burden, versus 1.7% for the highest.

The study emphasizes that regional averages can mask vulnerabilities, urging policymakers to consider specific population segments most at risk.

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