Smithsonian Magazine · People & society

El Niño Heatwave Could Cause Nearly Half a Million Deaths

A "super" El Niño event is projected to cause approximately 451,000 heat-related deaths globally by February, with the Global South expected to be disproportionately affected. Researchers aim for this un-peer-reviewed estimate to inform humanitarian and government decisions.

The estimate from the Climate Impact Lab applies expected El Niño temperature anomalies to previous research linking temperature and heat deaths. Over 200,000 excess heat deaths are estimated to have already occurred.

Actions like heat warnings and cooling centers could help mitigate fatalities. "We're hoping this information is actionable, that decisions can be made to move resources ahead of time," stated Emily Grover-Kopec.

Africa's Sahel region is predicted to be most impacted, with an additional 66,800 deaths expected. Nigeria accounts for nearly half of these, with Sudan, Niger, and Chad also facing high mortality.

South and Southeast Asia will also see severe impacts. Projections include 19,300 additional deaths in Indonesia, 15,800 in India, and 19,400 collectively in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.

Co-author Michael Greenstone called the El Niño a "postcard from the future," forecasting it to raise global temperatures by 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the coming months.

The death toll might be higher, as heat could linger and the report only considered heat-related mortality, excluding other El Niño impacts like wildfires and infectious diseases.

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