Mongabay · Climate & nature

Natural Emissions Could Amplify Warming by 30%, Study Finds

Greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost, wetlands, freshwater, and wildfires could significantly amplify human-caused global warming, according to a new study.

As Arctic permafrost thaws, ancient organic matter decays, releasing methane and carbon dioxide. This creates a feedback loop where warming causes more thawing and thus more emissions.

A study in Environmental Research Letters analyzed four natural sources of greenhouse gases: permafrost, wetlands, freshwater, and wildfires.

Researchers estimate these natural systems could add 0.2°-0.4° Celsius (0.4°-0.7° Fahrenheit) of warming by 2100, amplifying human-caused warming since 2020 by 20-30%. Methane contributes about half of this amplified warming.

The study focused on additional emissions released after 2020 due to ongoing human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation.

Increased heat accelerates permafrost thaw, exposes more organic matter to decay, and speeds up methane production in wetlands and freshwater.

Drier forest conditions lead to more frequent wildfires, which also release warming gases.

This is the first study to combine these four sources to quantify the amplification of human-induced global warming.

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