Horizon Magazine · Climate & nature

New Climate Models Enhance Regional Risk Assessment

European researchers are developing advanced Earth-system models to better understand and predict climate change impacts at both global and local scales, improving the representation of human activities and natural processes.

Scientists are creating more detailed models to track how human activities, like emissions and land use, influence climate. These models improve links between atmosphere, land, and oceans, allowing better tracing of carbon. One project found rivers transfer about 20% more carbon to oceans than previously estimated.

New tools, including AI, are being integrated to better capture interactions between climate, carbon, and natural cycles. This refinement helps explore how changes in emissions and land use affect the environment.

Traditional climate models often simplify complex links to manage simulations. The ESM2025 project focused on improving these connections for a more consistent view of climate change drivers.

Alongside tracking human influence, new models are increasing resolution to simulate climate processes with greater physical detail at local levels, unlike older models focused on global averages.

Higher-resolution models, like NextGEMS, simulate climate at scales of a few kilometers globally, providing granular understanding of atmospheric/oceanic circulation and local cycle interactions.

The enhanced detail allows reassessment of global warming risks for specific regions, offering decision-makers clearer, localized information to inform policies mitigating risks like extreme rainfall or heat.

Localized information is crucial for stakeholders, like energy providers, to support planning. Understanding how wind patterns might change is vital for installing wind turbines.

AI-samenvatting op basis van de bron.