EU Joint Research Centre · Science

Heatwaves negatively impact European crop yields, with varying effects on winter and summer crops

Repeated heatwaves and limited rainfall have significantly impacted crop yields across Europe. Winter crops experienced shortened grain-filling phases and earlier harvests, leading to a 1-4% downward revision in EU yield forecasts. Summer crops faced depleted soil moisture, constrained growth, and affected flowering, with grain maize and sunflowers seeing the most notable reductions of 6-7%. Persistent hot and dry conditions in western Europe increase the likelihood of further yield declines.

In Türkiye, a cool and wet spring resulted in record winter crop yields and favorable prospects for summer crops.

Heat stress and water deficits have adversely affected crops across western and central Europe. In Spain, high temperatures shortened the grain-filling phase for winter crops. Northern and central Italy saw suboptimal maize growth due to heat stress during flowering, particularly in non-irrigated fields. Ireland experienced accelerated winter crop senescence but no major concerns.

France reported negative impacts on winter and summer crops due to successive heatwaves and limited soil moisture, especially in western regions. However, adequate soil moisture and irrigation in some areas offer potential for recovery.

Eastern Belgium, Luxembourg, southwestern Germany, Austria, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic experienced low soil moisture further depleted by high temperatures, raising concerns for summer crop yield potential. Winter and spring crops matured prematurely, impacting grain size and quality.

Hungary and western Romania faced exacerbated drought conditions due to intense heat depleting soil moisture, with Hungary observing the strongest impacts on both winter and summer crops.

In southeastern Poland and western Ukraine, persistent soil moisture depletion is not expected to cause major additional crop impacts. Northern Türkiye's rainfall deficit since mid-June may have locally affected non-irrigated fields, but overall soil moisture remains adequate.

Conversely, above-average rainfall in northeastern Poland, western Latvia, and western Lithuania may delay harvesting, reduce grain quality, and promote disease development. Cool conditions in central Türkiye have delayed winter crop development and harvesting.

Local storms in northern Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, and Germany caused physical damage to summer crops, including lodging, due to strong winds, downbursts, and hail.

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