EU Joint Research Centre · Science

Fair yield outlook maintained for winter crops

Growing conditions across Europe remain generally favourable for winter and summer crops, with EU yield forecasts slightly above the five-year average but below last year's levels. However, dry spring conditions and a May heatwave have reduced winter crop prospects in parts of Europe, and concerns are rising for summer crops due to depleted soil moisture.

The dry spring and May heatwave have impacted winter crop yield prospects in western, central, and eastern Europe. Concerns are also increasing for summer crops as soil moisture reserves are depleted while water demand rises. High temperatures and limited rainfall forecast until the end of June across much of western and central Europe could intensify crop water stress and threaten yield potential.

The 2026 rice campaign has started smoothly in main producing regions, with favourable EU-level yield prospects.

Persistent crop water stress in western, central, and eastern Europe has already reduced winter crop yield expectations and raises concerns for summer crops. Rainfall deficits since spring have depleted soil moisture, impacting winter crops and increasingly concerning for summer crops.

Specific areas of concern include central-western France, southern Czechia, western Slovakia, most of Hungary, westernmost Romania, western and central Ukraine, south-western Germany, and easternmost France, where dryness and heat are affecting crop development and yield expectations.

In central Italy, a late May heat spell accelerated winter cereal grain filling, reducing yield expectations, though they remain above the five-year average. In Sicilia, hot and dry May conditions slightly reduced very good durum wheat yield expectations.

Previously reported impacts include unfavourable winter crop emergence in Castilla y León, Spain, leading to irreversible yield losses, and late frost events impacting rapeseed flowering and winter crop growth in Hungary, western Romania, Poland, Czechia, and Lithuania.

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