Carbon Brief · Climate & nature

UK Conservatives Misstate Net-Zero Cost Due to Spreadsheet Error

A policy document from the UK Conservative party incorrectly states the cost of achieving net-zero emissions, appearing to double the figure due to a spreadsheet error.

The Conservative "Right Way" document claims the Climate Change Committee (CCC) estimated the cost of net-zero at £957 billion. However, the CCC's 2020 estimate was £478 billion, and a revised 2025 figure is £108 billion.

The erroneous £957 billion figure seems to originate from a misinterpretation of a 2020 CCC spreadsheet. This spreadsheet listed capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operational savings (OPEX). Adding these figures twice, including annual totals, resulted in the doubled cost.

The CCC stated in 2020 that the net cost of £478 billion was less than 1% of GDP over 30 years and projected a GDP boost of around 2%. The revised 2025 estimate of £108 billion represents less than 0.2% of GDP.

The incorrect £957 billion figure was first published online in January 2026 by David Turver, who cited the CCC's 2020 advice. Turver's report appears to have double-counted the costs by summing all numbers in the CCC spreadsheet without accounting for pre-existing annual totals.

Following Turver's publication, the erroneous figure was repeated by the Great British Think Tank in March 2026 before appearing in the Conservative document in October 2026.

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