EU Joint Research Centre · Climate & nature

Europe's Summer Crops Threatened by Extreme Heat and Drought

Persistent heat and severe water deficits across western and central Europe have significantly impacted summer crop prospects, leading to reduced fertility, impaired grain filling, and accelerated senescence. While northern and eastern Europe face less severe conditions, overall EU yield forecasts for summer crops have been sharply lowered, falling below the five-year average.

The extreme weather conditions have caused moderate yield reductions to severe losses, with crop failure likely in the most affected regions. Grassland productivity and pasture availability have also declined, raising concerns about fodder supply.

While cooler and wetter conditions are forecast for western and central Europe, they are expected to arrive too late to mitigate the losses already incurred.

Specific areas of concern include France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and western Romania, where high temperatures and insufficient rainfall have severely affected summer crops during critical development stages. Limited irrigation water availability has exacerbated the stress.

The Benelux countries, Slovenia, and Croatia have experienced intensified hot and dry conditions since late June, reducing yield expectations, particularly for maize.

Alerts have been issued for southern Ireland, northern Germany, and Denmark due to low soil moisture, with potential impacts on summer crops if dry conditions persist. Southern Poland, western Ukraine, and western Bulgaria have also seen localized soil moisture deficits affecting summer crops.

Locally very high temperatures in northern Spain and southern Türkiye have had limited effects on crop conditions so far.

Yield prospects for most winter cereals, with harvesting largely complete, are confirmed around the EU's five-year average, despite adverse conditions earlier in the season that had already reduced expectations in several countries.

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