Carbon Brief · Climate & nature

Indonesia's 2026 Wildfire Emissions May Match Century's Peak

Wildfires in Indonesia are on track to produce carbon emissions comparable to the country's most severe fire season this century, according to experts. As of September 7, 2026, fires have emitted 76 million tonnes of carbon (MtC), mirroring the trajectory of 2015.

This year's fire activity places 2026 on a similar path to 2015, when fires burned 2.6 million hectares and generated 333 MtC. Some regions, like Papua, are experiencing unprecedented burning. Historically, Indonesia's fire seasons, particularly during El Niño events like 1997 and 2015, have significantly impacted global emissions and regional air quality.

The current El Niño, expected to last into 2027, is projected to be intense, exacerbating dry conditions and creating ideal circumstances for large-scale fires.

Experts note El Niño amplifies fire risk by creating hotter, drier conditions, but does not directly cause most fires. Land clearance and peatland drainage for agriculture create highly flammable landscapes.

Indonesia's peatland ecosystems are a major factor in high emissions. When drained and degraded, peat becomes dry and combustible, and can smolder underground.

While Indonesia has implemented peatland protection and restoration measures, their effectiveness in the current El Niño event remains uncertain.

The scale of this year's fires will depend on the El Niño's duration and conservation success. While some areas like Sumatra have seen reduced fire activity, regions like Papua are experiencing intense fires.

It is unclear how much recent peatland restoration has mitigated the current fires. The intensity in some areas suggests ongoing challenges despite regulations.

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