EU Joint Research Centre · Climate & nature

El Niño Drives Crop Failures and Threatens Future Harvests

El Niño is causing severe crop failures in Central America and East Africa, and poses a significant threat to upcoming harvests in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia. The climate pattern is exacerbating existing conflicts and economic hardships in several regions.

Southern Africa's cereal production is currently above average, but the upcoming planting season faces risks of drier-than-average conditions across key agricultural areas like South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar. Only northeastern Angola, northeastern Zambia, and northern Mozambique are expected to receive near-average rainfall.

In East Africa, severe heat and drought have damaged rangelands and reduced crop and livestock productivity. While El Niño forecasts heavy rainfall, it is expected to cause flooding rather than provide relief. In Sudan and South Sudan, these climate extremes worsen ongoing violence and market disruptions, pushing millions toward starvation.

West and Central Africa are experiencing close-to-average first-season maize harvests, but crop conditions are poor in Nigeria's Middle Belt, Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, and Chad due to erratic rainfall. Conflict remains the primary driver of food insecurity, especially in the Sahel.

The Middle East and North Africa are showing strong agricultural recoveries, with good winter cereal harvests in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and excellent yields in North Africa. Yemen, however, faces acute food insecurity for 17 million people despite average sorghum and millet crops.

Central and South Asia generally have favorable agricultural prospects. Central Asia has seen excellent winter cereal harvests, and Afghanistan expects positive outputs. Pakistan faces mixed rice conditions due to monsoon delays, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have good prospects. North Korea also reports a favorable outlook for maize and rice.

El Niño-driven climate extremes and socioeconomic shocks are disrupting agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean. Severe drought has devastated harvests in Central America's Dry Corridor, leading to national emergencies in Honduras and El Salvador. Colombia's grain sector is strained by an earthquake, and Peru faces flood threats. Political crises and violence further undermine food security in Cuba and Haiti.

The next assessment is scheduled for the end of September 2026.

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