Smithsonian Magazine · People & society

Atlantic Hurricane Season Unusually Quiet, El Niño Cited as Primary Factor

The Atlantic hurricane season has seen no storms reach hurricane strength through September, a rare occurrence attributed to a strong El Niño event. This marks the first time in over 30 years that September has passed without a hurricane.

The absence of hurricanes is unprecedented in modern records, with meteorologists noting the deep tropics have been "basically shut off." September 10th is statistically the peak of the season, making this year's quiet period particularly surprising.

Historically, only two documented seasons since 1900 have had no hurricanes, though early records are less reliable. In recent decades, an average of seven hurricanes have formed each season.

A powerful El Niño is believed to be suppressing Atlantic storm development while fueling hurricanes in the Pacific. El Niño typically increases wind shear in the North Atlantic, which disrupts storm formation.

Record-strong wind shear has been observed over key Atlantic hurricane formation areas this summer. Meanwhile, warmer Pacific waters are contributing to increased hurricane activity there, with 20 named storms and three Category 5 hurricanes recorded as of October 1.

Despite the current lull, threats could still emerge, as October historically sees hurricane landfalls in Florida. Experts caution that conditions hostile to hurricanes may temporarily abate.

The lack of hurricanes does not mean a lack of tropical storms, which can also be destructive. Climate change is contributing to wetter and more destructive cyclones. There is still time for storms to develop before the season ends in November.

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