EU Joint Research Centre · Climate & nature

Global Crop Overview: Bumper Harvests in Some Regions, Climate Threats in Others

A July global overview highlights contrasting agricultural conditions worldwide, with Southern Africa and parts of Asia anticipating strong cereal and rice harvests, while East Africa and Latin America face escalating climate-related threats.

Southern Africa is projected to have an aggregate cereal production of 43.4 million tonnes, nearly 10% above the five-year average. South Africa anticipates a 10% increase in maize output, Zambia forecasts a record maize harvest of 4.94 million tonnes, and Zimbabwe expects a 2% rise. However, Angola and Mozambique have experienced reduced yields due to dryness and flooding, respectively. Favorable rainfall has also boosted regional livestock production, and South Africa has completed winter wheat sowing under good conditions.

East Africa is confronting significant agricultural challenges due to intensifying heatwaves, dry spells, and El Niño conditions. Inland and northern areas, including Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, are expected to suffer prolonged drought with below-average rainfall predicted through September. Conflict in Sudan and South Sudan exacerbates food insecurity, with high famine risks identified in several areas unless humanitarian aid is scaled up.

In West Africa, while southern bimodal areas show good maize biomass, deficits in Senegal, Mali, and Burkina Faso have delayed the cropping season. Poor biomass conditions are noted in Nigeria and Chad, impacting 54.8 million people already facing food insecurity due to conflict and climate shocks. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast across most of the Sahel, affecting pastoralists.

The Middle East generally has good winter cereal output and rice prospects following improved rainfall, though localized water shortages exist. North Africa shows a strong recovery with projected significant increases in wheat production in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, despite initial delays and flooding in Morocco. Yemen faces challenges with critical sorghum and millet crops suffering from rainfall deficits, leading to severe food insecurity for 17 million people amid conflict and economic crises.

Central Asia reports good winter cereal prospects, and Afghanistan's harvest outlook is positive due to consistent rainfall, though socio-economic conditions and droughts affect 14 million people. South Asia, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, benefits from favorable weather supporting strong rice and maize prospects. Agricultural conditions in the DPRK also remain favorable.

Latin America and the Caribbean islands face contrasting climate scenarios with El Niño. The Central American Dry Corridor, the Caribbean, and parts of northern South America are expected to experience severe heat and drought, causing crop losses. Conversely, elevated risks of flooding and landslides are predicted on the South American Pacific coast and parts of the Andean region. These conditions compound existing agricultural crises in Cuba and Haiti.

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