Science News · Science

Climate Change Alters Malaria Distribution in Africa

A new study suggests climate change is shifting malaria hot spots across Africa, moving from West and Central regions towards eastern and southern areas.

Increased temperatures create a more favorable climate for malaria in eastern and southern Africa, while potentially making conditions less hospitable in western and central regions. Transmission is sensitive to temperature.

Historically, malaria was most prevalent in West and Central Africa due to suitable temperatures for the parasite and mosquitoes. Transmission peaks around 25°C.

Researchers analyzed over a century of blood sample data, creating a model linking childhood malaria to temperature and precipitation, compared to a scenario without climate change.

From 1901-2014, climate change likely increased malaria transmission by 0.5% across sub-Saharan Africa, with greater increases in East and southern Africa. For example, it rose 8 cases per 1,000 children in Ethiopian highlands.

Malaria transmission is predicted to decrease by 2% in sub-Saharan Africa over 85 years under a 2.7°C warming scenario.

However, control efforts significantly influence transmission and can outweigh climate changes. Expanding mitigation strategies is crucial for areas projected to see increased transmission.

African regions must increase malaria awareness, as they cannot wait for global emissions reductions to mitigate climate impacts.

AI-samenvatting op basis van de bron.