Carbon Brief · Climate & nature

Heathrow Expansion Could Lead to 80% of UK's 2050 Emissions from Flights, CCC Warns

The UK's Climate Change Committee (CCC) warns that aviation emissions could reach 80% of the UK's 2050 carbon budget, even without Heathrow expansion, due to insufficient policies.

Aviation emissions have doubled since 1990, driven by passenger numbers, while other sectors' emissions fell. The CCC states the UK lacks credible policies to reverse this trend.

Without Heathrow expansion, aviation emissions are projected at 38 MtCO2 by 2050. Expanding Heathrow would add 2.4 MtCO2 in 2050, rising to 4.5 MtCO2 by 2054.

The CCC concluded that Heathrow expansion would worsen the problem, as the UK lacks a credible plan to reduce aviation emissions to net-zero levels.

The government's 'jet-zero strategy' relied on unrealistic SAFs and technology projections. A revised strategy is planned for 2027.

The CCC advocates a 'polluter pays' principle, requiring the industry to fund emission reductions and scalable engineered carbon removal technologies.

This could increase ticket prices by £150 (Alicante) to £400 (New York) by 2050, but would manage demand and avoid public spending on removals.

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