Carbon Brief · Klimaat

China's CO2 Emissions Decline in Q2 2026 Driven by Reduced Oil Consumption

China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, primarily due to a significant drop in oil consumption, exacerbated by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. This marks the first instance where reduced oil use, rather than coal, has been the main driver of an overall emissions fall.

The reduction in oil consumption, which fell by 9% overall and 16% for transport, was a key factor in the overall emissions decline, despite a continued increase in coal-fired power generation. Electric vehicles (EVs) and public transport played a crucial role, allowing transportation levels to rise even as fuel use decreased. The impact of EVs on oil consumption was substantial, with their usage surging and displacing an amount of oil equivalent to the UK's total consumption over six months.

Other significant findings include a slowdown in the growth of coal use for chemicals production to 8% annually. Despite strong growth in wind and solar capacity, coal power generation increased due to the "curtailment" of renewable energy output, a situation exacerbated by a power market favoring coal. China's government released several energy-related five-year plan documents, signaling higher standards for new coal-power plant approvals but offering few new quantitative targets.

Overall, emissions saw a marginal increase in the first half of 2026, but remain below their peak levels from 2023-24. China is on track to add sufficient wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower capacity to meet electricity demand growth this year, even with a slowdown in new capacity additions.

The fall in oil imports was substantial, with crude oil processing volumes down 11% and imports cut by 32% in the second quarter. While inventory drawdowns played a role, reduced consumption was a significant factor. Power sector emissions rose due to increased solar and wind generation being wasted, alongside a 2.4% increase in coal use, despite growth in renewables and hydropower.

The decline in oil consumption was driven by structural reductions in transport oil demand due to electrification, with EV sales and usage increasing significantly. Heavy-duty electric truck sales saw a notable rise, and overall EV utilization surged. This shift to EVs, alongside increased rail and subway use, was the primary driver for reduced oil consumption, rather than a decrease in overall mobility. Behavioral changes and operational adaptations also contributed to the reduction in oil consumption and imports.

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