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Mongabay · Climate & nature

Report: Up to 45% of Wild Fish Could Feed Aquaculture by 2040

A new report suggests that by 2040, a significant portion of wild-caught fish may be used for aquaculture feed, depending on industry growth and species farmed. This has intensified debate at a UN fisheries meeting.

A report by the Changing Markets Foundation analyzes scenarios for aquaculture expansion by 2040. It suggests that if production of species like salmon and shrimp expands, up to 46% of global wild catches could be used for aquaculture feed. If aquaculture shifts to species requiring less fish-based feed, this figure could drop to 13%.

The report was released before the UN FAO's Committee on Fisheries meeting, fueling debate between the FAO and small-scale fisheries representatives who view aquaculture as "destructive."

The FAO clarified that a "75% growth milestone" for aquaculture by 2040 was not a set target, but a discussion point. The organization's actual aim is 35% growth by 2030.

Currently, about 20% of wild-caught fish is used for fishmeal and fish oil, with two-thirds going to fish farms. The report's scenarios were based on the FAO's roadmap.

The Changing Markets Foundation criticized the FAO's Guidelines for Sustainable Aquaculture, alleging they lack safeguards and were influenced by Norway. Norway denies this.

Small-scale fisheries representatives argue that industrial aquaculture negatively impacts local communities, diverting fish and livelihoods.

While aquaculture contributes to global nutrition, the report's calls for better regulation are considered reasonable due to nutritional risks in some regions supplying fishmeal.

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